Government borrowing lower than forecast – but next chancellor ‘facing Pandora’s box’

Government borrowing was less than expected in May, new figures have revealed.

Net borrowing – the difference between public sector spending and income – was £15bn, an increase of £0.8bn on the same time last year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported on Friday.

The amount is below the £15.7bn forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and less than expected by economists.

However, it was still the highest amount for the month of May since the COVID-19 pandemic.

The ONS also said that public sector net debt, excluding public sector banks, was provisionally estimated at 99.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) in May – the highest level since March 1961.

The figure is also 3.7 percentage points higher than during the same period last year.

Economists said it showed that whoever wins the upcoming general election will face a string of potential financial challenges.

Alex Kerr, from research firm Capital Economics, said that while the better-than-expected net borrowing figure would give a little extra wriggle room for the next chancellor, it would do little to reduce the “scale of the fiscal challenge that awaits”.

He said this included upward pressure on the government’s debt interest bill from higher interest rates.

Mr Kerr estimated that the next chancellor will have financial “headroom” of around £8.5bn at their first post-election fiscal event, slightly less than the £8.9bn left over from the last budget in March.

Economist Michal Stelmach, from KPMG UK, said the next chancellor was facing a “fiscal Pandora’s box”.

He added: “The fiscal reality is similar for whichever party wins the general election. Interest rates are set to remain higher, debt more difficult to bring down, and spending pressures continue to mount.

“With only nuanced differences in the stated plans for fiscal rules and taxation, borrowing will likely follow a similar path under either government.

“That said, a clear victory would give the winning party a stronger mandate to implement big reforms or increase public investment.”