To listen to UK car manufacturers in recent weeks has been to hear a counsel of despair over the electric vehicle market.
Struggling to hit targets imposed amid mixed messages from the last government, they have lobbied the new one to relax the rules.
Yet November’s figures show an industry not just hitting the 22% zero emission mandate (ZEV) but exceeding it, with EVs accounting for a quarter of all new sales.
In the week Ford joined Vauxhall and Nissan in calling for state incentives to boost sales, what are we to conclude?
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The industry says November is a blip, only the second month this year when EVs topped 22%, with the total for the year likely to fall just short of 19%, and only thanks to £4bn of discounting.
With the target rising to 28% next year, and fines of £15,000 for every vehicle by which they fall short, they say consumers need help, in the form of grants or tax breaks, to swallow their reservations about plugging in.
But the picture is not quite as simple as that.
Benefits beyond the headline target
While 22% is the headline target, manufacturers can benefit from flexibilities, including buying credits from competitors who exceed the target, to offset their shortfalls. (These carbon credits have long been a crucial revenue line for Tesla, raising almost $1.8bn (£1.41bn) last year.)
Proponents of EVs say once these are taken into account the “real” target is 19%, and with some manufacturers far exceeding targets, any shortfall can be met from competitors, with not a penny in fines going to the government.
New Automotive, which campaigns to increase the pace of the energy transition, tracks global EV sales and its latest figures show BMW-Mini, Jaguar and Vauxhall all recorded EV sales above 30%, with Peugeot, Renault, MG and Skoda exceeding 22% in November.
2:35 Ford calls for incentives to buy EVsBiggest critics are furthest behind
According to New Automotive’s tracking of “real” targets for manufacturers, Ford, Stellantis, Nissan and VW are furthest behind.
Coincidentally or not, the first three of those have been the most vocal in calling for reform of the ZEV regime.
Consumer reservations about electric vehicles are real. Price, range and concerns over the charging network – all of which are improving – still give people pause. But the UK’s progress is remarkable.
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Since 2017 new electric car registrations have grown from close to zero to 25% of the market, with petrol and diesel declining from around 95% to less than 40%, helped by the rise of hybrids. It is a fundamental change that mirrors the energy market, with the rise of wind power and the phase-out of coal.
And as with energy, the final steps to decarbonisation will be the hardest and, one way or another, the most expensive.
Which is why manufacturers are asking the state to give us a helping hand on the road.